How internet shutdowns silently drain Africa’s economy

In an increasingly digital Africa, turning off the internet doesn’t just silence voices,it bleeds economies and undermines the continent’s progress toward inclusive growth. Internet shutdowns, defined as intentional disruptions of the internet or electronic communications imposed to control information flows, are becoming an increasingly common policy tool across the region.

While the full economic toll of shutdowns is difficult to measure precisely, credible models such as the Internet Society’s NetLoss Calculator demonstrate that even brief disruptions can inflict substantial costs on national economies. Shutdowns disrupt e-commerce, stall cross-border payments, paralyse mobile money transactions, and cut off millions of SMEs and informal businesses that rely on digital platforms for survival.

As Africa’s digital economy continues to grow—with e-commerce alone projected to reach $940 billion by 2032—these intentional disruptions represent an escalating threat to both financial stability and long-term development.

The Digital Economy’s Rising Stakes

Africa’s e-commerce market is projected to reach $940 billion by 2032, with 500 million online shoppers by 2025. The region is also positioning itself as a digital services exporter, expected to reach $74 billion by 2040, and its cross-border payments market is forecast to hit $1 trillion by 2035. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is designed to boost this momentum by promoting digital inclusion and trade connectivity.

At the heart of this transformation are millions of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), many operating in informal markets and relying on mobile money, social media, and digital tools to sell, communicate, and grow. But these gains are fragile. Without reliable, uninterrupted internet access, progress can quickly unravel.

A Costly Switch: Shutdowns and Economic Paralysis

Internet shutdowns affect every layer of the economy, from tech hubs in Nairobi to informal markets in Conakry. One of the most visibly disrupted sectors is e-commerce, where transactions rely on real-time connectivity to manage orders, inventory, and payments. When connectivity vanishes, so does business activity. Even brick-and-mortar retail businesses suffer, as many now rely on internet-connected point-of-sale systems.

The impact on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is equally severe. In Africa’s emerging digital ecosystem, many SMEs and informal businesses have embraced tools like WhatsApp, Facebook Marketplace, and Instagram to reach customers, manage sales, and promote services. With limited access to alternative infrastructure or financial reserves, a shutdown can mean a complete halt in operations, sometimes leading to long-term closures.

In the financial and trade sectors, internet outages affect everything from mobile money transactions to cross-border logistics. Payment processors go offline, banks become unreachable, and regional supply chains unravel. For a continent increasingly reliant on digital solutions to facilitate intra-African trade and financial inclusion, this creates both short-term losses and long-term strategic setbacks.

Hidden Costs and Societal Impact

While GDP losses are the most visible consequence of internet shutdowns, their hidden costs run even deeper—and may be more damaging in the long term.

First, shutdowns erode public trust in institutions. When governments use connectivity as a lever of control, citizens begin to question the reliability of digital services, especially in critical sectors like banking, healthcare, and education. This not only affects adoption rates but also undermines the broader digitalisation agenda many countries are actively pursuing.

Second, the climate of regulatory uncertainty deters foreign and domestic investment. Investors—particularly in fintech, e-commerce, and digital infrastructure—require stability and predictability. Frequent or politically motivated shutdowns signal risk, increasing capital costs and often leading investors to redirect funds to more predictable environments.

Third, there is the long-term risk of digital poverty. When access to information, markets, and online learning platforms is repeatedly disrupted, people and businesses fall behind. Inconsistent connectivity widens inequality, especially among youth, rural communities, and women entrepreneurs, and undermines years of progress in digital literacy and economic inclusion.

Shutdowns also impair innovation. Collaboration between startups, universities, and tech hubs often occurs through cloud-based platforms and real-time communications. Cutting off access interrupts this dynamic ecosystem and reduces the continent’s global competitiveness in emerging technologies.

How Much Are Shutdowns Really Costing Us?

The NetLoss Calculator, developed by the Internet Society, offers an economic framework to estimate the impact of internet shutdowns based on intentional, technically verifiable, and wide-scale disruptions. While specific national loss figures may vary, the methodology demonstrates that even short-term shutdowns can produce millions of dollars in lost economic activity, primarily affecting SMEs, cross-border trade, and financial services.

Shutdowns contradict national visions for digital growth and undermine pan-African efforts under frameworks like the AfCFTA to build a cohesive digital single market.

Is There a Way Forward?

Yes—but it requires political will, legal accountability, and inclusive collaboration.

Encouragingly, recent legal decisions in Africa suggest a shift toward stronger digital rights protections. In May 2025, the ECOWAS Court of Justice ruled that Senegal’s internet shutdown during the June–July 2023 protests was unlawful and violated citizens' rights to freedom of expression and access to information. Days later, Kenya’s High Court issued an injunction prohibiting the government from arbitrarily disrupting internet services, setting a precedent for constitutional oversight.

These rulings mark a growing judicial acknowledgement that internet access is no longer optional infrastructure—it is essential. To move forward, African governments and stakeholders must act on this momentum.

Four priority actions stand out:

1. Codify legal safeguards against arbitrary or politically motivated internet shutdowns, ensuring due process and rights-based justifications.

2. Develop transparent emergency protocols that preserve national security without compromising digital connectivity or economic continuity.

3. Foster multistakeholder governance, bringing together civil society, private sector actors, and technical experts to shape digital policies inclusively.

4. Invest in infrastructure resilience, especially in underserved regions, to mitigate the impact of localised disruptions and ensure broader digital inclusion.

By taking these steps, African nations can reinforce both digital freedoms and economic stability, building a future where the internet is protected, not weaponised.

Turning the Lights Back On

Africa’s digital economy is no longer a distant aspiration—it is a defining feature of the present. Disrupting it, even briefly, amounts to economic self-harm.

As digital trade, online services, and mobile payments become pillars of economic activity across the continent, safeguarding internet access must be treated as a strategic economic imperative, not just a matter of rights or convenience.

Figure: Why Internet Access Is the New Electricity

To thrive in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Africa must regard the internet the same way it does electricity or water: a foundational utility essential for inclusive growth, resilience, and long-term prosperity.

This article was published originally at WEF Stories. Link.